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Big pharma valuations mostly rose through their largest US LOEs
Big pharma companies have emerged largely intact from their largest US losses of exclusivity (LOEs), and where valuations did fall, the drop usually came before the LOE rather than after. In Sleuth’s July 2024 analysis of ten of the largest US LOEs, from Lipitor and Plavix to Humira, the company’s valuation was at least slightly higher one year after the LOE than at the LOE in nine of the ten cases, even though the drugs averaged about 28% of their company’s US sales just before the LOE.
Humira was the largest exposure, and Plavix the most concentrated
The basket spans LOEs from 2011 to 2023, all at large pharma companies. Humira had $18.6 billion in US sales, about 41% of AbbVie’s US total, before its Q1 2023 LOE. Revlimid ($8.7 billion, about 30% of Bristol Myers Squibb’s US sales), Lipitor ($7.2 billion, about 25% of Pfizer’s) and Plavix ($6.6 billion, about 48% of BMS’s) follow. The other six each had $3.5 billion to $5.6 billion, from about 14% of Johnson & Johnson’s US sales for Remicade to about 33% of Lilly’s for Cymbalta. Seven of the ten were in immunology and inflammation (I&I), oncology or cardiovascular disease.
US sales at LOE are the prior full fiscal year’s, and Neulasta is dated to Q2 2018, when biosimilar competition arrived, rather than its Q4 2015 LOE. Even an exposure near half of US sales, as with Plavix at BMS, did not cause lasting valuation damage in this basket.
Where valuations fell, the drop usually came before the LOE
Several companies dipped in the run-up, often between two years and one year before the LOE: Pfizer before Lipitor, Johnson & Johnson before Remicade and Merck before Singulair. Sanofi’s valuation fell in each of the three years before Lantus lost exclusivity, held roughly flat for two years after and then rose. Others rose through the LOE and beyond, including AbbVie with Humira, Lilly with Cymbalta and BMS with Plavix.
BMS after Revlimid was the one case in which the valuation fell in the year after the LOE: it peaked at the Q1 2022 LOE and declined over the next two years. In the second year after LOE, results were more mixed, with about half still rising and several flattening.
Investors appear to price the cliff in advance, so in this basket the LOE date itself was rarely the moment of maximum damage.
Why companies emerge largely intact, and why this decade may differ
Sleuth offered several explanations. Companies address their LOEs well in advance through M&A, licensing and internal R&D, and use every investor interaction in the run-up to redirect attention to their pipeline. Some may simply be oversold before the LOE, so that by the time it arrives the base has reset and the story can turn back to growth.
AbbVie is the clearest recent case. In mid-2024, Skyrizi and Rinvoq were estimated to reach a combined $27 billion by 2027, more than Humira’s peak sales of about $21 billion in 2022. AbbVie returned to growth in 2024, a year sooner than the analysis expected, and Skyrizi and Rinvoq brought in about $25.9 billion together in 2025.
Sleuth’s caveat is that history may be a poor guide this decade, because the LOEs ahead dwarf past ones except Humira. The largest is Keytruda, which Sleuth expected to carry about $30 billion in annual worldwide sales into its 2028 LOE, a franchise traced in how Merck built a blockbuster with Keytruda. Keytruda’s worldwide sales reached $31.7 billion in 2025.
Past LOEs suggest the cliff is survivable, but only Humira matched the scale ahead. How top pharma is buying ahead of these LOEs in 2026 is covered in Sleuth’s T15 pharma buyout map.
LOE dates, sales and valuation trends are from Sleuth’s July 2024 analysis; valuation changes are read from the chart’s yearly points. AbbVie, Skyrizi, Rinvoq and Keytruda figures are from full-year 2024 and 2025 results reported through February 2026. This page is a dated snapshot.
Frequently asked questions about pharma valuations and LOEs
What happens to big pharma valuations after a major LOE?
In Sleuth’s July 2024 analysis of ten of the largest US LOEs, the company’s valuation was at least slightly higher one year after the LOE than at the LOE in nine of the ten cases. The exception was Bristol Myers Squibb after Revlimid’s Q1 2022 LOE.
How much of company sales did the largest US LOEs represent?
In Sleuth’s July 2024 analysis of ten of the largest US LOEs, about 28% of US sales on average, based on the prior full fiscal year, from about 14% for Remicade at Johnson & Johnson to about 48% for Plavix at Bristol Myers Squibb.
Why don’t LOEs hurt pharma valuations more?
In Sleuth’s July 2024 view, companies replace the revenue years ahead through M&A, licensing and R&D, redirect investors to their pipelines and are often oversold before the LOE. AbbVie’s Skyrizi and Rinvoq, with about $25.9 billion in combined 2025 sales, are the leading example.
