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Pancreatic, liver and small-cell lung cancer pair high incidence with low survival
Pancreatic, liver and small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) are the biggest unmet needs among US cancers with fewer than 100,000 new cases a year: common enough to matter, and still deadly. Sleuth’s June 2024 chart of SEER data puts pancreatic cancer at about 66,000 cases and about 13% five-year survival, liver cancer at about 42,000 and about 22%, and SCLC at about 40,000 and about 9%. These cancers are largely a graveyard of failed treatments, and survival captures only part of what patients still lack.
The chart plots 36 US cancer types and subtypes by estimated 2024 incidence and five-year survival for patients diagnosed from 2014 to 2020.
Five-year survival ranges from about 6% to about 95% on the chart
Glioblastoma has the lowest five-year survival on the chart, about 6%, followed by SCLC (about 9%), pancreatic cancer (about 13%) and mesothelioma (about 14%). Gallbladder, esophageal and liver cancer cluster at about 21% to 22%, and acute myeloid leukemia, the subject of Sleuth’s AML landscape, sits at about 32%. At the top, testicular cancer reaches about 95%, HR-positive, HER2-positive breast cancer is above 90%, and Hodgkin lymphoma and CLL are at about 88% to 89%.
The two highest-incidence cancers on the chart, kidney and renal pelvis (about 82,000 cases) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (about 81,000), have five-year survival of about 78% and 74%. Incidence and survival are only loosely related, so unmet need has to be read from both axes together.
In pancreatic and liver cancer, drug delivery has been the barrier
In Sleuth’s 2024 view, lack of efficacy in the high-incidence, low-survival cancers, pancreatic and liver cancer for example, has been driven by an inability to deliver therapeutics effectively.
After this analysis, in May 2026, Revolution Medicines’ RAS(ON) inhibitor daraxonrasib nearly doubled median overall survival in previously treated metastatic pancreatic cancer in the Phase 3 RASolute 302 trial, 13.2 months against 6.7 months with chemotherapy, as covered in Sleuth’s ASCO 2026 abstract analysis.
The corner is not closed to progress, but new entrants there face a long record of failure and need a credible answer to the delivery problem.
In SCLC, patients drop away with each line of treatment
SCLC is often diagnosed at extensive stage and moves fast. Sleuth estimated in 2024 that the number of patients reaching each successive line of treatment falls by more than half, from about 22,000 in first line to about 9,000 in second line.
Because so many patients never reach later lines, where a drug enters the treatment sequence matters as much as how well it works.
In well-managed cancers, refractory patients have few options
Refractory patients in well-managed cancers face a different problem. The success of upfront therapy for most patients has limited investment in reserve treatments, leaving those who relapse with few options.
Survival is also only one measure of unmet need. Across most cancers, Sleuth sees room to improve safety profiles, patient and caregiver burden and pain management, none of which a survival chart shows.
Values are read from the June 2024 chart and rounded. Five-year survival covers US patients diagnosed from 2014 to 2020, and incidence is the 2024 estimate, both from SEER. This page is a dated snapshot; the daraxonrasib result was reported in May 2026.
Frequently asked questions about cancer survival versus incidence
Which cancers have the lowest five-year survival on this chart?
In Sleuth’s June 2024 chart of SEER data for US cancers with fewer than 100,000 estimated cases in 2024, glioblastoma (about 6%), small-cell lung cancer (about 9%), pancreatic cancer (about 13%) and mesothelioma (about 14%) have the lowest five-year survival, for patients diagnosed from 2014 to 2020.
Which cancers combine high incidence with low survival?
Pancreatic cancer (about 66,000 estimated 2024 US cases, about 13% five-year survival), liver cancer (about 42,000, about 22%) and small-cell lung cancer (about 40,000, about 9%), in Sleuth’s June 2024 chart. Sleuth sees these as the cancers with the highest unmet need.
How many SCLC patients reach second-line treatment?
Sleuth estimated in 2024 that about 22,000 SCLC patients receive first-line treatment and about 9,000 reach second line, a drop of more than half, because the disease is often diagnosed at extensive stage and moves fast.
