Lilly signed its 26th deal of 2026 yesterday: a $2.8B upfront buyout of AtaiBeckley and its psychedelic therapy for treatment-resistant depression.

Psychedelics are a new territory for Lilly, but the infectious disease, in vivo CAR-T and AI drug discovery platforms it bought this year are new too. It's all part of Lilly's strategy to seize the opportunity of breaking out of the Pharma LOE cycle.

Consensus sales for tirzepatide, orforglipron and the rest of its GLP1 portfolio exceed $70-80B in sales by 2030. But, unlike other durable mega-blockbusters like Keytruda ($30B+) or Humira ($20B), this revenue has largely been unlocked by just one indication - obesity. 

This means it didn't emerge over years of indication expansions - it was done early enough that tirzepatide still has 11 YEARS of patent life left, despite clear visibility to be 2.5x bigger than any drug we've seen before. Of course, other indications (T1D / T2D, sleep apnea, CKD, etc.) will support that topline number, but the lion's share comes from one mega winner. 

So, given Lilly does not have to focus on replacing near-term LOE revenue, they can afford to invest in higher risk and longer-term R&D, really rethinking what the portfolio could look like in 2035 and beyond. It's thus no surprise their BD team is putting out a 20+ term sheets a month - the mandate is to deploy that capital as broadly as possible right now. 

And if it works out, when that mega LOE does eventually come, Lilly will have had a decade to dull the impact with hundreds of bets across the rest of the portfolio.